THE MILITARY AND STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST, 2024

The study highlights the overall balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East and evaluate the capabilities of the main powerful actors in the region. For this purpose, the study presents and analyzes data, quantitative comparisons and qualitative indications with reference to a representative number of selected countries, including Greece and Cyprus.

 THE MILITARY AND STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE IN THE

EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST, 2024

 

By Dr. Aristos Aristotelous

 

I. MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Based on certain indicative factors, economic, demographic, geographical, and primarily military, Turkey emerges as a pretty strong power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, with an expanded capacity for projecting power and influence. Following, with some differences, are Egypt, Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. However, taking into account Israel's nuclear capabilities, the balance of power shifts significantly in favor of this country. On the other hand, the actions of influential paramilitary organizations as "proxies" of Iran in the region add to Tehran's military capabilities. At the western end of the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece's military presence is also significant and cannot be ignored. At the same time, Cyprus constitutes the weakest link in the entire equation in the region.

This is the main conclusion of a study by the Cyprus Center for Strategic Studies (CCSS). The study focused on comparing forces in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, which is particularly relevant in the current situation given the escalating crisis in the region.

 

The conclusions and other findings from the study are recorded as follows:

• Turkey, with the breadth of its defense capabilities and its developed military industry, seems to stand out for its military presence in the region and beyond. Ankara demonstrates the capability to support the presence of its forces at various points in the region or elsewhere in Africa. It is capable of supporting its active military involvement in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and certainly in Cyprus, as well as demonstrating power projection capabilities beyond its geographical area, serving the objectives of its revisionist policy. However, despite its increased defense spending, its exclusion from U.S. military programs has hindered the uninterrupted upgrade of its forces. At the same time, the actions of the Kurds remain a permanent threat to Turkey, and its surroundings are pretty precarious.

• Like Egypt, Iran, with its extensive albeit largely outdated arsenal, as well as other weaponry and space assets it possesses, is a particularly formidable military force. With a substantial fleet of uncrewed aerial vehicles and many thousands of ballistic and other long-range missiles, Iran has a comparative advantage in this field over various powers in the region. This fact constitutes a concerning observation and a threat to its existing or potential adversaries in the Middle East. The ability to produce weapons of mass destruction and the prospect of developing nuclear capabilities become nightmarish for Israel and other actors within and beyond the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

The actions of paramilitary organizations, equipped with hundreds of thousands of missiles and supported by Tehran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen, constitute Iran's long arm for indirect power projection in the Middle East. Therefore, the unexpected strikes of Israeli operations against Hamas and Hezbollah increase the gap in Iran's deterrent capabilities and defense, leaving Tehran even more exposed to a new cycle of attacks from Israel, which, for reasons of prestige, will also be compelled to retaliate.

Israel holds a significant position in the region. Despite its relatively small size, with its bloody defense expenditures, the highest after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, it presents a formidable war machine with incomparably vast lethal capabilities due to its nuclear arsenal. Undeniable is the technological level of its forces, which is characterized by its space and other intelligence prowess, its air defense, its long-range missile system, its uncrewed vehicles, and, indeed, its Air Force. Crucial to its effectiveness is the enduring logistical and operational support that Israel receives from the USA.

• Greece, compared to other actors, as a Mediterranean and not a Middle Eastern country, possesses sufficient forces for effectively defending its national territory, with the spearhead being the improved capabilities of the Hellenic Air Force and Navy. Greece, as a member of NATO and the EU, emerges as a significant power in the Eastern Mediterranean compared to other countries in the region. However, NATO member Turkey, due to its geographical position and more significant air and naval assets, holds some advantages without in any way underestimating the capabilities of Egypt and Israel.

• The small size, population, and economic scale of Cyprus, a bastion of the EU in this neighborhood, appears militarily as the weakest and essentially defenseless country in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Cyprus does have one of the highest per capita incomes, second only to Israel, but the lowest defense expenditures, namely $535 million compared to $540 million for Lebanon and $1.3 billion for Jordan. At the same time, it is exposed to the presence of Turkish occupying forces and the threat they may pose to the island. Its arsenal is comparatively tiny and largely outdated.

 

 

Purpose: The study's purpose is to highlight the overall balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East and evaluate the capabilities of the main powerful actors in the region. For this purpose, the study presents and analyzes data, quantitative comparisons and qualitative indications with reference to a representative number of selected countries, including Greece and Cyprus.

 

 

Sources: The data comes from a vast number of open and accessible sources such as SIPRI, IISS, RUSI, IMF, CIA Factbook, Global Firepower, Eurostat, and others, which have been processed, classified, and organized for the study.

 

II. ANALYTICAL DATA

 

POPULATION - GEOGRAPHY - ECONOMY

Population

Egypt, with a population of 109.5 million, remains the largest country in the region. It is followed by Iran, with 87.5 million, which has surpassed Turkey, now in third place with a population of 83.6 million. Next is Iraq, with 41.2 million. In Greece, the population amounts to 10.5 million, and in Israel, it is 9.2 million. Cyprus, with 1.1 million, is the smallest country in the region by population.

Geography – strategic value

Saudi Arabia, with 2.13 million square kilometers, holds the largest geographical area in the region. In second place is Iran with 1.63 million sq. km, in third place Egypt with 997,739 sq. km, and then Turkey with 783,502 sq. km. Greece has an area of 131,957 sq. km., and Cyprus is the smallest, 9,251 sq. km.

Each country has its strategic value depending on the circumstances of the respective era. However, throughout history, Turkey, located at the crossroads of the East, Europe, and Africa, and Egypt with the Suez Canal, have held a dominant position. Of course, the countries bordering the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea also have their strategic value, as demonstrated by the actions of the Houthis from Yemen, with the obstruction of navigation.

Economy: Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First, Turkey, by a large margin in terms of GDP size, is projected to reach $1.15 trillion this year. Second is Saudi Arabia, with a GDP of $1.11 trillion; third is Israel, which has $540 billion, followed by Iran, which has $386 billion. Greece, with its GDP at $256 billion, has fallen to seventh place. Following are Egypt and Iraq. For Syria, in both the economic and military sectors, there is no reliable data due to the confusion prevailing in the country.

Saudi Arabia shows the highest economic growth rate at 4%, followed by Egypt at 3.6% and both Turkey and Israel at 3%. However, due to the ongoing crisis and military operations, it is unlikely that the Israeli economy will achieve this developmental goal.

Additionally, the continuation and further escalation and expansion of the military conflict between Tel Aviv and the forces of the "Axis of Resistance" against Israel will not only have broader economic implications but also political upheavals in the region.

Regarding per capita income, Israel ranks first with $54,059, followed by the Republic of Cyprus with $36,976, Saudi Arabia with $33,144, and Greece with $24,513. In Turkey, the per capita income is $15,368, and in Iran, it is $4,418. Lebanon, with $3,283, has the lowest per capita income, with a likelihood of further contraction due to the impact on its economy from the transfer of the destructive Israel-Hezbollah confrontation to its territory.

Defense spending: Defense expenditures are at their highest levels in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel ($69.1 billion, $20.7 billion, and $19.2 billion, respectively). Turkey has budgeted $16.5 billion for defense purposes in 2024, which, if realized, will be approximately 90% higher than in previous years. Iran and Greece allocate around $7 billion for defense, and Egypt $5 billion.

 

III. MILITARY COMPARISONS

 

LAND FORCES

Military personnel: Despite drastic reductions in armed forces personnel, Iran, with 441,000 soldiers (Army et al.) and without considering reserves, significantly surpasses Turkey and Egypt, whose personnel numbers are 355,200 and 348,500, respectively. Israel has 169,500 soldiers, and Greece has 141,800. Cyprus has the most miniature army, around 10,000. Lebanon leads with 60,000.

Tanks, APCs, and Artillery: Egypt and Turkey stand out in the field of tanks. The former has 2,480 main battle tanks, and Turkey has 2,378, or 2 fewer. Following are Iran with 1,513, Israel with more than 1,300, and Greece with 1,228. Regarding the number of Armored Personnel Carriers, Turkey, with 6,403 APCs, Egypt, with 5,244, and Greece, with 2,107, surpass the other countries. The superiority of Iran in Artillery is noticeable, with over 6,800 artillery pieces compared to 4,468 in Egypt and 3,526 in Greece. Next is Turkey, with 2,762; Jordan, with 1,285; and Iraq, with 1,064.

Apart from possessing a significant number of uncrewed aerial vehicles and cruise missiles, the extent of Iran's missile arsenal is enormous. The country significantly surpasses any other power in the region in terms of surface-to-surface missiles. The range of the Shahab-3 and Sejj-1-2 missiles it possesses reaches or exceeds 1,200 km and 2,500 km, respectively. Tehran is still working on developing missiles with more fantastic range. Hamas and especially Hezbollah, with their hundreds of thousands of missiles, some with a range of up to 600 km, add to Iranian power. On the other hand, Israel has the Jericho-2 and Jericho-3 missiles with a range of 1,500 km – 6,500 km, and Saudi Arabia has the DF-3 and DF-4 with ranges of 2,600 km and 2,100 km, respectively.

Nuclear and Chemical Weapons: Israel apparently possesses military nuclear capabilities. It possesses 90 nuclear warheads in its arsenal as a means of last resort in case its existence is directly threatened. In addition to its capabilities to produce chemical weapons, Iran is very close to acquiring nuclear means, a fact that dramatically concerns Israel and would foresee or even plan to halt their development.

AIR FORCES

Fighter aircraft: Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with 589 and 441 fighter aircraft, respectively, have more aircraft than the other countries in the region. Israel has 340, Turkey has 294, Iran has 265, and Greece has 229.

Technologically, Israel and Saudi Arabia possess the most advanced aircraft in the region, while American sanctions against Turkey leave their mark on the qualitative level of its Air Force.

NAVAL FORCES                                                                        

Indicatively, the main naval assets possessed by the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East compared as follows:

Navy—Human Resources: In this sector, Turkey has a much larger human resource base in the Navy, namely 45,000, compared to other countries. Egypt has 18,500, Iran has 18,000, Greece has 14,300, Saudi Arabia has 13,500, and Israel has 9,500.

Submarines/ Frigates/ Corvettes/ Patrol Vessels: Iran, with 19 submarines, has complete superiority over neighboring countries that lack these means, placing it in a favorable position in its maritime geographical area. On the other hand, however, Saudi Arabia has ten frigates compared to Iran's nine corvettes, as well as 89 patrol vessels compared to 61 Iranian and 33 Iraqi.

In the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey and Greece excel in naval assets, but Egypt is also a considerable force in the region, followed by Israel. Turkey has 12 submarines, and Greece has 10. Egypt has eight submarines, and Israel has 5.

Notably, Egypt has two helicopter carriers, and Turkey has one, with the prospect that the Turkish Navy will soon reinforce its naval capabilities with an aircraft carrier, which is currently under construction by the domestic defense industry.

Regarding frigates and corvettes, Turkey has 16 frigates and nine corvettes. Greece and Egypt each have 14 frigates, and Israel has seven corvettes.

Patrol vessels: Egypt has around 70, while Israel, Turkey, and Greece each have around 40.

Mine warfare/Mine sweepers: Egypt and Turkey own most of the vessels in this category, 14 and 11, respectively. Greece has 7.

Amphibious ships: Turkey significantly outperforms with 41 such ships, compared to 15 from Egypt, 15 from Israel, and 13 from Greece.

Cyprus has only about six patrol boats in its Navy.

 

 

October/November, 2024

 

 

 


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